SWODY1
SPC AC 171259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LWR
48...WITH RDG OVER THE RCKYS/WRN PLNS...AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE APPALACHIANS. BACK WEST...POTENT E PACIFIC SHORTWAVE IMPULSE
NOW CENTERED NEAR 43N/133W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD TO THE SE AREA
BY THIS EVE AND INTO SRN AB BY 12Z SUN. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT NOW OFF THE ORE CST SHOULD SWEEP INLAND ACROSS WRN WA/ORE
EARLY THIS AFTN...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THOSE STATES BY EARLY
TONIGHT.
...PACIFIC NW...
SCTD CG LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING IN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OFF THE NRN ORE CST.
COMBINATION OF FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AOA 1.25 INCHES/...AND
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUGGEST THAT THE LIKELY ELEVATED
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO FAR NW ORE AND WRN WA LATER THIS MORNING AS
TROUGH CONTINUES NEWD.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE EXISTS FOR AN ISOLD TORNADO IN NW ORE/WRN WA...IF
FRONTOGENETIC UPLIFT SUFFICIENTLY INCREASES TO SUPPORT A BAND OF
FORCED...MORE NEARLY SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF LOW LVL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LIMITED...THUS OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LOW.
IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION/STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN DEEP/COOL CYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW OVER WRN WA
THIS AFTN AND EVE. COOL MID LVL TEMPERATURES MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL
IN A FEW SPOTS BEFORE ACTIVITY DIMINISHES WITH NIGHTFALL AND
CONTINUED NE MOVEMENT OF UPR VORT.
...S FL...
SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF FL
TODAY AS ERN U.S. TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES. VEERED FLOW AHEAD OF
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...ISOLD STORMS
COULD FORM THROUGH THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E CST.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/17/2009
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