SWODY1
SPC AC 080055
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT WED OCT 07 2009
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL/SRN PLNS...
ISOLD SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS
OF SWRN TX ACROSS PRESIDIO AND BREWSTER COUNTIES WHERE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING/CONVERGENCE LOCALLY OVERWHELMED CINH. 00Z MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS
SAMPLED A 15 DEG C H7 TEMPERATURE AND SUGGESTS THAT SFC-BASED STORM
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY/MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE BIG
BEND REGION. STORMS COULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MID-EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...MERGING OF THE POLAR UPR TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLNS WITH
THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH EMANATING FROM THE DESERT SW UPR TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN A RAPIDLY INCREASING H25 JET OVER THE MO VLY /AOA 140
KTS/. SLY LLVL FLOW WILL RESPOND AND INCREASE TO 50-55 KTS OVER W
TX AND OK WITH THE MAXIMUM IN H85-H7 THETA-E ADVECTION EVOLVING FROM
WRN MO SWWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL OK. BANDS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION/TSTMS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND BACKBUILD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES OF NEAR 7 DEG C PER KM PER 00Z RAOBS
ACROSS NRN TX...WILL SPREAD NWD WITH TIME AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
ISOLD STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
MEANWHILE...LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE DESERT SW UPR
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NM AND INTO W TX TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL BANDS OF ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS SERN NM THIS
EVENING AND SPREAD ENE INTO THE TX S PLNS AND TX PNHDL REGION BY
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO POSE A MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
RISK.
..RACY.. 10/08/2009
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