SWODY1
SPC AC 060058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2009
VALID 060100Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY/OZARKS...
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN CO WITH A 996 MB
SURFACE LOW AS OF 00Z...WHICH IS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.
EARLY THIS EVENING...NEAR SURFACE BASED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH
ASSOCIATED CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY HAIL. FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070. OTHER
SURFACE BASED STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHWEST KS WILL QUICKLY WANE
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...WITH A DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK
ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...THE PRIMARY SCENARIO THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS THE
ANTICIPATION OF A NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET /50+ KT/
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW LEVEL JET/LATTER PERIOD
HEIGHT FALLS AND THE NORTHEASTWARD TRANSPORT OF A RATHER
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ELEVATED AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...REFERENCE 00Z OBSERVED RAOBS FROM NORMAN OK AND DEL RIO
TX...SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAINLY
TOWARD/AFTER 06Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK INTO MO/NORTHERN
AR/PERHAPS NORTH TX. ATOP A COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WEAK TO
MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. RESIDUAL WARM TEMPERATURES/MODEST
LAPSE RATES IN THE 800-500 MB LAYER AND AN EVENTUAL TENDENCY FOR
STORM CLUSTERING/UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE SHOULD CURB A MORE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT.
..GUYER.. 10/06/2009
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