SWODY1
SPC AC 191229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2009
VALID 191300Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NRN NV WILL FURTHER WEAKEN AS STRONGER
UPSTREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY SE INTO NRN/CNTRL CA. THE
LATTER SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE LWR CO VLY BY 12Z TUE AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RDG PROGRESSES FROM THE SRN PLNS TO LWR MS/TN VLYS.
AT LWR LVLS...EXPECT LEE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN
CO/WRN KS. COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH CA UPR TROUGH SHOULD MERGE
WITH BOUNDARY LEFT BY NV SYSTEM. THE COMBINED FRONTS SHOULD MOVE
ESE ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND GREAT BASIN LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...AND WILL SERVE TO FOCUS ISOLD TO SCTD
DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.
...GRT BASIN TO NRN HI PLNS...
AIR S AND E OF FRONT OVER THE GRT BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
...WITH PW GENERALLY AOB 0.5-0.6 INCH. NEVERTHELESS...STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF AMPLIFYING UPR
JET...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LVL LAPSE RATES. AS A
RESULT...AREAS OF MODEST SBCAPE /AOB 250 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF NV/SRN ID/NRN UT/WY AND SRN MT TODAY. COUPLED WITH FORCING
FOR ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF JET STREAK...ISOLD TO SCTD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...ESPECIALLY INVOF FRONT. ALTHOUGH A FEW
STORMS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL...MEAGER CAPE WILL LIMIT SVR THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY OCCUR FARTHER E IN CONJUNCTION WITH
TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND LOW LVL WAA OVER THE NRN HI PLNS.
...SE AZ INTO SRN/CNTRL NM AND SW TX...
INFLUX OF LOW LVL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CA AND NW MEXICO...AND
SFC...HEATING WILL YIELD WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE TO 500 J PER KG/
OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM AND SW TX TODAY. STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL REMAIN WELL TO NW OF REGION THROUGH THE DAY...WEAK ASCENT WILL
BE PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES IN SRN STREAM
FLOW. THIS SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLD TO SCTD
DIURNAL PULSE STORMS...ESPECIALLY FROM E AZ INTO SW/S CNTRL NM.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 10/19/2009
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