SWODY1
SPC AC 051613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT MON OCT 05 2009
VALID 051630Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...W TX INTO THE OK/SERN KS...
MID MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE SURFACE FRONT REMAINING
STALLED E-W FROM THE UPPER TX COAST INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
BETWEEN LRD AND DRT...WITH 'SOUPY' GULF AIR CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR
80F DEWPOINTS TRAPPED TO ITS SOUTH. LEE TROUGH IS ALREADY BECOMING
DEFINED SOUTH OF A LOW CENTER ACROSS ERN CO AND ALONG THE TX-NM
BORDER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MIX EWD THROUGH THE DAY AS ROBUST
HEATING OCCURS ACROSS NM INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SHEAR ALOFT WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AS LEADING MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED JET OVERSPREAD THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF
SECONDARY UPPER LOW DIGGING SSWWD ACROSS CA. ALTHOUGH INFLUX OF
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO WRN TX AND
WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT...PRIMARY
NEGATIVE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE LEE TROUGH WILL BE CAPPING
AND LIMITED ASCENT OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF
MID/UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS AND LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
LOW/CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAIN
WARRANTED. FARTHER NE...INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WAA OVERNIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED...ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN TX
INTO THE OZARK REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND
40-50 KT AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW MORE
ROBUST/PERSISTENT STORMS WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...ALTHOUGH THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT INTO MO
GIVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
STRENGTHENING ASCENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AND
ROOT INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER NERN CO/NERN KS/SWRN NEB LATER
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER...DEEP
ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSTMS...INCLUDING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS/LINES.
ACTIVITY MAY BE BRIEF-LIVED AS STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TEND
TO UNDERCUT THE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER ISOLATED HAIL AND EVEN A BRIEF
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 10/05/2009
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