SWODY1
SPC AC 161937
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/EASTERN
STATES UPPER TROUGH...APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST
OF THE JACKSONVILLE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...LIKELY APPROACHING THE TAMPA/MELBOURNE AREAS BY
17/00Z. HOWEVER...WEAK/SHALLOW LIFT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...COUPLED
WITH WEAK UPPER FORCING...MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER INLAND AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
..KERR/COOK.. 10/16/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2009/
...FL...
MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA IS UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW REGIME AHEAD OF A
RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT LOCATED LATE THIS MORNING FROM SERN GA
WSWWD ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.
WITH PWS AROUND 2 INCHES AND MLCAPES FROM 2500-3000 J/KG MUCH OF
PENINSULA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INLAND ACROSS
TPA CWA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL DEVELOP MUCH OF THE REMAINING
AREAS DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL
REDEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS IT
DROPS SWD.
GIVEN THE RATHER WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...LARGE HAIL
WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY TODAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT WESTERLY SHEAR
COUPLED WITH THE AVAILABLE CAPE FOR STORMS TO CONGEAL INTO SHORT
LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE THREAT STILL SEEMS MARGINAL GIVEN THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITHIN ANY LINE SEGMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
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