SWODY1
SPC AC 081259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2009
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS THROUGH THE
OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
AZ UPR LOW APPEARS TO BE OPENING INTO A WAVE ATTM AS STRONG NRN
STREAM SPEED MAX SWEEPS SE INTO WA/ID. THE AZ WAVE SHOULD DEAMPLIFY
AS IT EJECTS ENE INTO THE CNTRL PLNS BY 12Z FRI. IN THE DOWNSTREAM
CONFLUENT FLOW NOW OVER THE S CNTRL PLNS...A WEAKER DISTURBANCE NOW
OVER OK SHOULD CONTINUE ENE INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY THIS EVE.
AT LWR LVLS...WEAK WRMFNT MARKING SWRN FRINGE OF SHALLOW COOL AIR
DOME CENTERED OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING
NWD ACROSS THE RED RV VLY REGION AND SRN AR ATTM. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD JUMP N/NE TO A CNTRL OK/NRN AR/SE MO LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTN
AS MODERATE SFC HEATING OCCURS TO ITS S AND W. VERY RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 70S F/ AND HIGH PW /AOA 1.75
INCHES/ CHARACTERIZE THE WARM SECTOR AIR. A WEAK LOW...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LEAD UPR IMPULSE...SHOULD MOVE ENE ALONG THE
REDEVELOPED BOUNDARY OVER NRN AR AND SE MO LATER TODAY...AND INTO
THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT. FARTHER NW...CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN
STREAM JET WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE S ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS...AND
MORE SLOWLY SE ACROSS THR LWR PLNS/MO OZARKS. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE LWR OH VLY TO S CNTRL TX BY 12Z FRIDAY.
...SW TX/SRN PLNS INTO OZARKS/LWR OH VLY...
ELEVATED TSTM CLUSTERS...OCCASIONALLY WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FROM NRN OK ENE INTO CNTRL
MO...ENHANCED BY A 50-55 KT SSWLY LLJ...AND AUGMENTED BY PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPR WAVE. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ENE INTO
IL/IND/OH LATER TODAY.
MODERATE LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR S AND E OF THIS
ACTIVITY AS WARM FRONT REFORMS NWD AND DIURNAL MIXING OCCURS.
STRONG/SVR STORMS SHOULD FORM IN WEAKLY CONFLUENT WARM SECTOR FOR
CNTRL TX NE ONTO MUCH OF OK AND WRN/NRN AR.
SUBSTANTIAL /40+ KT/ LOW LVL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST
NEAR TRACK OF OZARKS SFC LOW...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN OK ENE INTO NRN
AR/SE MO THIS AFTN...AND ENE INTO SRN IL/IND A BIT LATER THIS EVE.
ALONG THIS AXIS...TRAINING SUPERCELL STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A
CONSIDERABLE PERIOD OF TIME...POSING A RISK FOR TORNADOES AND/OR
DMGG WINDS THIS AFTN INTO LATE TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EARLY FRI.
FARTHER SW...MORE SUBSTANTIAL SFC HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO SOMEWHAT
GREATER LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION IN ZONE OF STRONGLY VEERED LOW LVL
FLOW OVER THE SRN PLNS. COMBINATION OF WEAKLY CAPPED/VERY RICH
MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT...STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL
TO SW-NE CONFLUENCE ZONES...AND APPROACH OF POSITIVE-TILT UPR TROUGH
SUGGEST LIKELIHOOD FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE FROM SRN OK
SSW INTO S CNTRL TX. DESPITE MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST
LOW LVLS...THESE COULD YIELD SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...IN
ADDITION TO COUPLE TORNADOES. MULTIPLE WAVES OF STORMS MAY AFFECT
REGION BEFORE THE ACTIVITY ULTIMATELY CONSOLIDATES INTO A
LARGE...BROKEN FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE RED RVR LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRI.
..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 10/08/2009
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