SWODY2
SPC AC 010557
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THIS PERIOD...WHILE A
SECOND LOW DROPS SWD OUT OF WRN CANADA AND INTO THE PAC NW LATE.
AT THE SURFACE...A SLOWLY FILLING LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM SRN
MN/IA EWD TO LK MI BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT -- FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR
SRN LK MI SSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH/TN VALLEY REGION INTO LA AND
THEN WSWWD INTO S TX EARLY -- IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BOTH CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SHIFT INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...S TX ENEWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WHILE THE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN N OF THIS
REGION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD INVOF THE FRONT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. WHILE MODERATE WLYS AT
MID-LEVELS MAY PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONGER
CELLS...RELATIVELY WEAK LOWER LEVEL WINDS AND LIMITED
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...WITH A
LOCAL HAIL/WIND THREAT POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS --
PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WILL MAINTAIN LOW /5%/ SEVERE
PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
...ELSEWHERE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND A VERY LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL --
SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION INCLUDING
COASTAL NC LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
W. HOWEVER...WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ANTICIPATED...WILL NOT
INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.
..GOSS.. 10/01/2009
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