SWODY2
SPC AC 200554
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS
FRONT FARTHER S -- ACROSS THE S CENTRAL STATES -- WILL LIKELY BE
HINDERED...AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE IS PROGGED INVOF OK
LATE IN RESPONSE TO LAGGING EJECTION OF SRN STREAM UPPER ENERGY.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY...EXPECT UPPER RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO PREVAIL.
...S TX/SERN OK/SWRN AR/WRN LA...
DESPITE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW/MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...POTENTIAL FOR
DESTABILIZATION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
ONGOING/ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF OK/TX. WHILE ENHANCED
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD YIELD SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS...THERMODYNAMIC DEFICIENCY SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE SEVERE
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN 5% RISK AREA FROM SRN OK SWD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX/WRN LA AND INTO THE WRN GULF COAST REGION
-- WHERE EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.
..GOSS.. 10/20/2009
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