SWODY2
SPC AC 271714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2009
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-WEEK ATTENTION WILL BE ON THE VERY STRONG UPR JET THAT WILL
CARVE OUT A COLD UPR LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN W. THIS FEATURE
WILL SETTLE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
EJECTING ENE TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LOWER-LEVELS...A FRONT THAT SETTLES INTO THE NRN GULF BASIN
IN WAKE OF THE CURRENT IMPULSE MIGRATING NEWD FROM THE MID-SOUTH IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP QUICKLY N INTO PARTS OF NRN TX AND LWR MS VLY
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. UPSTREAM...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER NERN NM WEDNESDAY AFTN WITH THE LOW DEVELOPING INTO SWRN KS BY
12Z THURSDAY. SRN PLAINS LEE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY
A CDFNT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER WRN TX WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING
OVER PARTS OF OK/CNTRL TX BY SUNRISE THURSDAY.
...SRN PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN IN EARNEST WEDNESDAY
AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AS SLY FLOW INCREASES DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE APCHG UPR LOW. SFC DEW POINTS IN EXCESS OF 60 DEG F WILL
BE SURGING INTO PARTS OF CNTRL/NWRN TX BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
PERHAPS SUFFICIENTLY DELAYED TO REDUCE THE RISK OF DIURNAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR
POST-SUNSET TSTMS TO EVOLVE ALONG THE TX/OK BORDER SWD INTO THE
TRANSPECOS REGION AS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND
LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD EWD.
FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG AND DESPITE
THE POST-DIURNAL CYCLE TIMING...INITIAL STORMS MAY BE SUPERCELLS
WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. BACKING
LOW/MID-LVL WIND FIELDS WITH TIME AND INCREASING ASCENT WILL RESULT
IN AN EXPANDING SQUALL LINE FROM WRN/CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL TX BY 12Z
THURSDAY. WHILE SVR THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO MOSTLY DMGG
WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...PARTICULARLY WHERE
STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE THE LONGEST WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CNTRL/NRN TX.
...UPR TX CST/E TX/WRN LA...
STREAMER SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTN/EVE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS STRONG LLVL SLY FLOW COMMENCES IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE INTENSE UPR TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY DEEPEN WITH TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MORE ROBUST
BUOYANCY/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGIN TO SURGE TO THE CST AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS INCREASE. WHILE THE RISK OF SVR WEATHER WILL
ESCALATE JUST BEYOND THE DAY 2 PERIOD /ENDING 12Z THURSDAY/...ISOLD
STORMS MAY BEGIN TO EXHIBIT SOME ORGANIZATION AS EARLY AS 09-12Z
THURSDAY. SUFFICIENT LLVL TURNING WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A LOW
PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO INVOF THE WRMFNT.
..RACY.. 10/27/2009
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