SWODY3
SPC AC 060724
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGE BY DAY 3 IN OPERATIONAL
RUNS...SPECIFICALLY WITH RESPECT TO THE SRN STREAM TROUGH EXITING
THE SWRN CONUS. AS A RESULT...MAJOR DIFFERENCES ALSO EMERGE IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLAINS -- WHERE THE
MAIN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE FOCUSED THIS PERIOD.
...SRN PLAINS...
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT A MOIST/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR WILL EXPAND
ACROSS TX...WITH WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT CONVECTION FROM PARTS OF OK
NWD LIKELY TO HINDER ANY APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION/SEVERE
POTENTIAL N OF THE RED RIVER.
WHILE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS SURFACE-BASED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF TX...STRONGER STORMS MAY DEVELOP FROM W
CENTRAL AND SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON INVOF A FRONT/TROUGH TRAILING SSWWD FROM A WEAK LOW INVOF
WRN OK. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY LIKELY ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF THIS
AREA AND THE ANTICIPATION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SLYS VEERING TO
MODERATE/SWLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
ORGANIZATION/SEVERE POTENTIAL. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ACROSS THIS REGION DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
FORECASTS...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE AREA NONETHELESS WITH THE INITIAL
INTRODUCTION OF LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY.
..GOSS.. 10/06/2009
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