SWOD48
SPC AC 130855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2009
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS A CONTINUATION OF THE DAY 3 SCENARIO...PERSISTENT HEIGHT FALLS
AND A SOUTHEAST PROGRESSING COLD FRONT/MOIST PREFRONTAL AIRMASS MAY
YIELD AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FL
PENINSULA ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND PARENT SYSTEM ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...PRECLUDES 30% DAY-1 EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
THEREAFTER...POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP SOUTHWARD PENETRATION OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE GULF SHOULD
KEEP THE PROBABILITY FOR AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE CONUS
QUITE LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE THE CASE EVEN
WITH THE LATEST ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE IMPLYING BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ROCKIES TO PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
..GUYER.. 10/13/2009
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