SWOD48
SPC AC 220900
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009
VALID 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEAN TROUGH ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF MORE
PROGRESSIVE SMALLER-SCALE TROUGHS CROSS THE CONUS. AN INITIAL COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE ATLANTIC/GULF COASTS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD...BRINGING COOLER/CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE SRN AND ERN CONUS
DAYS 4-5 /SUN AND MON OCT 25 AND 26/.
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS THEN BEGIN TO DIFFER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIALLY DAY 6
/TUE OCT 27/...AS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE SYSTEM
APPEARS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTY.
WHILE SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS CAST DOUBT UPON THE
DEGREE AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL -- IF ANY. DIFFERENCES
PERSIST/INCREASE BETWEEN THE MODELS INTO DAYS 7/8 AND THUS --
DESPITE A GENERAL EWD SHIFT IN THE STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
CONVECTIVE WEATHER...LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES A MORE DETAILED
DISCUSSION ATTM.
..GOSS.. 10/22/2009
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