SWOD48
SPC AC 240827
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION/INTENSITY
OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEXT WEEK. ECMWF ALLOWS A CLOSED LOW
TO DEVELOP OVER TX DURING THE DAY3-4 TIME FRAME...THEN INTENSIFIES
THIS CYCLONE AS IT EJECTS NEWD INTO THE TN/OH VALLEY REGION
WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GFS HARDLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO AT ALL WITH
ONLY A WEAK DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
GULF STATES. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITHIN THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUTLOOKED
THIS PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 10/24/2009
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