SWOD48
SPC AC 180906
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0406 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2009
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
CORRECTED FOR WORDING
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN PART OF THE GREAT
PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS
WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF OK AND NORTH TX.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL DETERMINE HOW
WIDESPREAD THE THREAT BECOMES. AT THIS POINT...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
TOO GREAT TO WARRANT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA. THE UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY THURSDAY/DAY 5 WHERE
SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. AGAIN...LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BE PROBLEMATIC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ON
FRIDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH A LARGE
ERN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS AND GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 10/18/2009
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