SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050237
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-050330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...GULF COASTAL AREAS OF LA/MS/AL AND SRN FL
PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050237Z - 050330Z
BRIEF/SMALL TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THIS REGION. THREAT
APPEARS TOO MRGL...ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL FOR WW. POTENTIAL
SHOULD PERSIST SPORADICALLY THROUGH REMAINDER OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN
THIS STRETCH OF GULF COAST...AS NOTED IN LATEST DAY-1 OUTLOOK.
FOR NEXT FEW HOURS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM RELATIVELY SMALL AND
DISCRETE SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE...BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
EITHER
1. MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS WITH HIGHER CINH INLAND OR
2. MERGE WITH MORE DISORGANIZED BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DIFFUSE/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE OVER COASTAL
ARES FROM SRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE WWD...LOCALLY/EFFECTIVELY SHUNTED
SWD BY CURRENT AND PRIOR AREAS OF PRECIP. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS
WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...HOWEVER NARROW CORRIDOR IS EVIDENT WHERE NRN
EDGE OF OPTIMALLY SUPPORTIVE...HIGH-THETAE MARINE AIR IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH 0-1 KM SRH STRENGTHENING INLAND. LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS
SUPPORT MLCAPE 500-1500 J/KG IN MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS...DIMINISHING RAPIDLY INLAND. ALTHOUGH BUOYANT LAYER IN
THESE SOUNDINGS EXTENDS TO AROUND 125 MB...LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW
LEVEL LIFT S OF FRONT MAY BE KEEPING DISCRETE/OCEANIC CONVECTION
SHALLOWER...GIVEN APPARENT WARM-CLOUD CHARACTER AND LACK OF LTG IN
THAT ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENT LOOSELY APPROXIMATES THAT OF MRGL
TC-TORNADO SITUATION...BUT WITHOUT SUCH FOCUSED LOW LEVEL FORCING.
STREAMLINING VWP WINDS INDICATES WEAK 850 MB CONFLUENCE LINE FROM
CENTRAL AL SWD TO NEAR PNS THEN SWWD OVER GULF...SRN PORTION OF
WHICH CORRESPONDS TO BKN BAND OF CONVECTION S OF GZH. CONVECTION
MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED INVOF THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD...BUT ISOLATED/ROTATING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON EITHER
SIDE AS WELL.
..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29889313 30179128 30519077 30658804 30708668 30658615
29778482 29658485 29598502 29678520 29668536 29878544
29728530 29838529 29958540 30008556 30238587 30368636
30398669 30328726 30228804 30198839 30238871 30238896
30158920 29918923 29718938 29588957 29398948 29508921
29748891 29908883 30078885 29948877 29748885 29548905
29388932 29338915 29248911 29198898 28988916 29108926
28868945 29078934 29138945 29238949 29328983 29288992
29099017 29079032 29069099 29119088 29189096 29199119
29319136 29409121 29499131 29539147 29509157 29639158
29639166 29759164 29579172 29459179 29599207 29579222
29539228 29569263 29889313
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