SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052353
TXZ000-NMZ000-060230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT MON OCT 05 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W TX.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052353Z - 060230Z
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR STG-SVR TSTMS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD PEAK WITHIN
NEXT COUPLE HOURS ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL.
23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS AND SUBSEQUENT CLEAR-AIR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY
INDICATED SEVERAL BOUNDARIES OVER THIS REGION:
1. DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SFC LOW ALONG KS/CO BORDER...SWD ACROSS
N-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...NEAR AMA..PVW...LBB...CURVING WWD ACROSS
SERN NM WHERE SWLY FLOW PREVAILS IN BOTH DRY AND MOIST AIR MASSES.
DRYLINE HAS BEEN MOVING EWD ACROSS SOUTH-PLAINS REGION BUT MAY
RETREAT SOMEWHAT AFTER 00Z.
2. WAVY SFC WARM FRONT FROM SAT NWWD ACROSS NRN CONCHO...NRN TOM
GREEN...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES...INTERSECTING DRYLINE INVOF LBB.
WARM FRONT GENERALLY WILL DRIFT NWD...BUT AT VARYING RATES...WITH
LOCALIZED SEGMENTS QUASISTATIONARY.
3. CONFLUENCE LINE...WHICH ALSO IS ACTING AS SECONDARY DRYLINE
SEGREGATING 50S FROM UPPER 60S/70S DEW POINTS...FROM SRN BREWSTER
COUNTY NNEWD ACROSS UPTON COUNTY...INTERSECTING WARM FRONT INVOF SRN
SCURRY COUNTY.
SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES IS CLOSE TO
OCCURRING...GIVEN PRESENCE OF ABUNDANT DEEP CU/TCU INVOF THESE
BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY COMBINED FRONT/DRYLINE OVER SOUTH-PLAINS AND
DRYLINE FROM LBB SEWD. SUCH BOUNDARY ROOTED INITIATION STILL IS
UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...GIVEN IMPENDING LOSS OF SFC DIABATIC HEATING
AND LACK OF ROBUST DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. FARTHER SW...WEAK
PERTURBATION EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND PRESENCE OF
HIGH-BASED TSTMS OVER NRN CHIHUAHUA ALSO INDICATE SMALL ZONE OF
LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS PECOS VALLEY AND
PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS DURING EVENING. ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL POSE POTENTIAL FOR STG-SVR GUSTS AND HAIL...GIVEN
FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF MOISTURE AND SHEAR PROFILES E OF
CONFLUENCE LINE AND ALONG WARM FRONT. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 45-55 KT WITH MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG
IN NARROW ZONE NEAR FRONT. JTN PROFILER AND RUC HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST
NARROW CORRIDOR OF 300-400 J/KG OF 0-3 KM SRH WHERE LIFTED PARCELS
ARE SFC-BASED IN FRONTAL ZONE. MLCINH WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY WITH NEWD DISTANCE FROM FRONT...RENDERING INFLOW LAYER
MORE ELEVATED AND KEEPING APPRECIABLE TSTM WIND POTENTIAL IN AND W
OF FRONT AND FRONT/DRYLINE BLEND. POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PANHANDLE/SOUTH PLAINS REGION MAY INCREASE AFTER
DARK AS MOISTURE-RICH LLJ STRENGTHENS TO 40-50 KT AND LOW LEVEL WAA
INCREASES.
..EDWARDS.. 10/05/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...EPZ...
LAT...LON 35650105 33529988 32139965 31189969 30660109 29800189
29880228 29780237 29750267 29440281 28980312 29040339
29380415 29500418 29600447 29960471 30270473 30650498
30910539 31310479 32090282 33060207 35430205 35650105
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