SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061503
TXZ000-061600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 06 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL-NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756...
VALID 061503Z - 061600Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 756
CONTINUES.
SEVERE THREAT IS WANING ACROSS SERN OK AND WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELED.
SFC FRONT IS SURGING SWD ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS AND NCNTRL TX AT
ROUGHLY 25KT. THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT AND PROVIDE
FRONTAL ASCENT FOR ELEVATED ACTIVITY THAT IS DEVELOPING/INTENSIFYING
FROM JUST NW OF ABI...NEWD TO NEAR DENTON. 12Z SOUNDING FROM FWD IS
STRONGLY CAPPED AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INADEQUATE FOR
SFC-BASED ACTIVITY BENEATH THICK CLOUD CANOPY NEAR THE METROPLEX.
HOWEVER...AIR MASS FARTHER WEST IS LESS CAPPED AND MINIMAL FRONTAL
ASCENT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG/POST-FRONTAL AS WIND SHIFT
PUSHES ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY OF WCNTRL TX. ISOLATED HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS A BIT
TOO MARGINAL ATTM FOR A NEW WATCH ALONG ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE.
..DARROW.. 10/06/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32500061 33489848 33369695 32639789 31920008 32500061
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