SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080751
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-081045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT THU OCT 08 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NWRN OK AND SRN KS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 080751Z - 081045Z
CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH RATES LOCALLY OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR
INITIALLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL EXPAND NEWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND
SRN KS THIS MORNING. ISOLATED HAIL COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS.
ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR THE CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE ROUGHLY
PARALLEL TO THE 850 MB THERMAL GRADIENT. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER OVERNIGHT WITH THE STRONGER
ISENTROPIC LIFT GRADUALLY BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NWRN OK AND SRN KS
WHERE ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. STORMS ARE FORMING
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE AND PWS
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT IS PARALLEL TO THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SW-NE TRAINING OF STORMS WHICH WILL
RESULT IN LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR A
THREAT OF EMBEDDED ELEVATED SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
..DIAL.. 10/08/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 38599542 37929907 36700203 35440296 33830223 36029846
37719509 38599542
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