MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2086

ACUS11 KWNS 090035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090035
ILZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-090130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT THU OCT 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SE MO...FAR SRN IL...FAR WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 090035Z - 090130Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS
ACROSS NRN AR...SE MO AND FAR WRN KY AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS A
SEVERE LINE-SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS FAR NRN AR THIS EVENING. A TORNADO
THREAT ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS. A TORNADO WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.

00Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEAR THE AR-MO
STATE-LINE WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD WARM SECTOR IN PLACE FROM SE OK
EXTENDING EWD ACROSS ALL OF AR. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
ARE IN THE MID 70S F AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED BY THE RUC
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE MCD AREA. THE LITTLE ROCK 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN MLCAPE OF 2800 J/KG...0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 50 KT. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT REMAIN DISCRETE. THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR IN BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT WITH ROTATING STORMS LATER THIS
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/09/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 37459012 36929152 36819209 36479324 35959367 35439355
35209319 35299196 35579077 35968951 36588858 37318857
37459012

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