SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201941
TXZ000-NMZ000-202115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM AND FAR WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 201941Z - 202115Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL NM AND PERHAPS
FAR WEST TX. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
AS OF 1930Z...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NM /IN VICINITY OF CARLSBAD/ AND FAR WEST TX AMIDST A
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS CONTINUES TO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH. WHILE AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL OR WIND RISK MAY EXIST...THE TENDENCY
FOR CONTINUED MIXING OF INITIALLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND/OR MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
VIGOR/SUSTAINABILITY OF ANY SUCH THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...A
WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..GUYER.. 10/20/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 34880493 35310380 34970236 32160302 32270536 34880493
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