Tuesday, October 20, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2119

ACUS11 KWNS 202320
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202320
NMZ000-TXZ000-210015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2119
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770...

VALID 202320Z - 210015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 770
CONTINUES.

DOWNSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT CURRENTLY WARRANT ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

FRONTAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT
PROGRESSES ACROSS NM...WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED DISCRETE ACTIVITY NOW
MATURING WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN PLAINS INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE OVERALL UPWARD EXPANSION OF CONVECTION
CURRENT THINKING IS THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DOWNSTREAM. CURRENT
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST
INSTABILITY IS A BIT TOO WEAK GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR MORE THAN
A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..DARROW.. 10/20/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 31790841 35390555 34740441 31470692 31790841

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