SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221035
LAZ000-TXZ000-221200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...UPR TX CST AND WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221035Z - 221200Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LVL DISTURBANCE...UPR PORTION OF
FORMER TC RICK...TRANSLATING RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH S TX AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE WAVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE FORMER
FEATURE...SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED SINCE EARLY MORNING PER
VWP WITH 30-35 KT VALUES BETWEEN 0-3 KM. RESULTANT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAS CAUSED BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS TO SURGE INTO THE
LWR-MID 70S ALONG/S OF THE WRMFNT...ROUGHLY LOCATED KUTS-KLCH AT
10Z.
BAND OF TSTMS...INCLUDING ISOLD ROTATING CELLS...HAS INCREASED THIS
MORNING...WITHIN A BROADER CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE APCHG UPR
DISTURBANCE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GULF.
INSPECTION OF VWP/S SUGGESTS THAT 0-1KM SRH WAS HIGHEST ALONG THE
UPR TX CST NEWD INTO THE SABINE RVR VLY /AOA 250 M2 PER S2/ INVOF
THE RETREATING WRMFNT. THUS...AS CELLS MOVE OFF THE GULF AND APCH
THE ZONE OF ENHANCED SRH...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE A LOW
PROBABILITY /NON-ZERO THREAT/ FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...PARTICULARLY NE
OF THE HOUSTON METRO AREA EWD TO KLCH AND NWD TO KLFK AND KPOE.
..RACY.. 10/22/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 28369556 29909524 31019508 31569460 32239407 32039352
31139292 30639291 30009297 29289407 28369556
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