SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240925
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-VAZ000-241100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN WV...NWRN VA...WRN MD...PARTS OF
SWRN/S-CNTRL PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240925Z - 241100Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH ONGOING
STORMS THIS MORNING. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
RECENT TRENDS IN LIGHTNING...IR SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
TSTMS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING ALONG COLD FRONT E OF CRW...NAMELY
FAYETTE...NICHOLAS AND WEBSTER COUNTIES WV AS OF 0915Z. IN
FACT...VOLUMETRIC RADAR DATA SUGGEST SPORADIC LOW TO MID-LEVEL
UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. 3-HR SURFACE T/TD
INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST WARMING/MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER IS
OCCURRING E OF BLUE RIDGE ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. HOWEVER...AIR
MASS W OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE
WHERE MODIFICATION OF RUC PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT SURFACE
CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG.
24/00Z HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF-NMM APPEARS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE
ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY
TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID MORNING WHILE PROGRESSING
NEWD THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN VA AND S-CNTRL PA. GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELD OBSERVED BY AREA VWPS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. ANY TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT
ACROSS REGION.
..MEAD.. 10/24/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 38078091 39218001 40297866 40387790 39987768 39077830
38207939 37808021 38078091
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