Sunday, October 25, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2137

ACUS11 KWNS 260245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260244
OKZ000-TXZ000-260415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/NRN TX INTO SE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775...

VALID 260244Z - 260415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 775
CONTINUES.

UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH IS WELL UNDERWAY WITHIN ZONE OF STRONGER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...PERHAPS INCLUDING BOTH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
UNDERCUTTING STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER NORTH OF
DALLAS/FORT WORTH...SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD SAN ANGELO...WHILE
THE BULK OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IS BASED IN AN
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME. POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
IS LIKELY LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT LARGE HAIL MAY REMAIN A
THREAT WITH IT AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS EASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING.

NEW CONVECTION IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE AXIS NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL TEXAS
...INTO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...WHERE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION
IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING...AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BOUNDARY LAYER
BASED STORMS EXISTS THROUGH 04-05Z. MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000
J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LARGE HAIL. THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...WITH
SOME STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY 850 FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO SLIGHT
ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS.

..KERR.. 10/26/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 31429969 32209852 33049765 34059695 34689639 34999540
34689464 33869466 33139532 31389711 31429969

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