Thursday, October 29, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2156

ACUS11 KWNS 291548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291548
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-291745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2156
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1048 AM CDT THU OCT 29 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...E TX/WRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 291548Z - 291745Z

STORMS ARE PROGGED TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH WW POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR/VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AS LIGHTNING DATA SHOW A
SLOW/STEADY INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BOTH INVOF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TX
AS WELL AS WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM ADVECTION EXTENDING AS
FAR E AS WRN LA. WHILE HEATING REMAINS LIMITED BY ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVER...EVEN MODEST HEATING OF THE VERY MOIST /LOW TO MID 70S
DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
OF THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS -- COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN A
CONTINUED/STEADY INCREASE IN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...SURFACE SELYS ACROSS TX
INCREASING/VEERING RAPIDLY TO SLY AT 50-PLUS KT AT 1/2 TO 1 KM IS
YIELDING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATION/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
EXPECT SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL TO INCREASE INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE STEADY INCREASE IN STORM
ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.

..GOSS.. 10/29/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 33779704 33829525 33139390 31519206 30629249 30249411
30009597 30539770 30979856 32399756 33779704

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