SWODY1
SPC AC 110558
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING BELT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED
OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN/NORTHERN STATES AS MULTIPLE LOWER AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES CROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IN
THE EAST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER LOW/IDA
REMNANTS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM/POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH CROSSING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
...FL...
AS THE PARENT SOUTHEAST STATES UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD/WEAKEN DURING THE DAY...ADJACENT GULF CONVECTION MAY MOVE
INLAND EARLY IN THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTM DEVELOPMENT
OTHERWISE FOCUSED ALONG AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT /AND
PERHAPS IMMEDIATE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE/. WITH STRONG DRYING/IMPLIED
SUBSIDENCE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE EXTENT/VIGOR OF PRE-COLD FRONTAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS QUESTIONABLE...ESPECIALLY COINCIDENT WITH PEAK
HEATING. IN ADDITION TO WEAKENING LOW LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT MID LEVEL WARMING /ABOVE 700 MB/
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE DAY...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS UPDRAFT VIGOR MAY
BE LIMITED EVEN WITH SBCAPE POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. AS
SUCH...IT APPEARS THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL IS RATHER LOW.
...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT/SURFACE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TONIGHT. AS
SUCH...AN INLAND SURFACE BASED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 11/11/2009
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