SWODY1
SPC AC 150545
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING BELT OF
STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES...A QUASI-STATIONARY
SW-NE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR GENERALLY WEAK CONVECTION -- WITH INTENSITY
LIMITED DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
...E TX...
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS -- WHICH SHOULD BE ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF OK/KS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- SHOULD DEVELOP
SWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX BY LATE AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT
BEGINS PROGRESSING SEWD.
WHILE 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERSPREADING E TX WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION......WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD YIELD ONLY MINIMAL PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION -- AND THUS
GENERALLY WEAK/DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITY ACROSS PARTS OF E TX...WITH A LOCALLY GUSTY
DOWNDRAFT ARISING FROM A STRONGER STORM OR TWO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WHILE
CONVECTION PROGRESSES SEWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 11/15/2009
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