SWODY1
SPC AC 190531
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST WED NOV 18 2009
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX...
LATEST SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT REGARDING THE
EVOLUTION OF SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE
SWRN U.S. INTO FAR WEST TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID IN THE RETURN OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS
ACROSS THE SRN/WRN GULF BASIN AS CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
RETREATS ACROSS THE GULF STATES. THE DEGREE OF MODIFICATION
INLAND...INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS...MAY BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE
WITH BOTH MODELS SUGGESTING NEAR 70 SFC DEW POINTS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTH TX. LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 70+ DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN SHUNTED INTO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. REGARDLESS...WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS TX LATE IN THE PERIOD AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES WEST TX.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD
BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. WITH LLJ EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
SRN/CNTRL TX IT APPEARS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SHEAR PROFILES WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR STORM ROTATION AND A FEW WEAK
SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
NOT BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE...MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN POOR LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AT THIS TIME LATEST GUIDANCE/DIAGNOSTIC DATA DO NOT SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
...ERN U.S...
UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FORCING EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTH OF THE DELMARVA REGION INTO SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC. 00Z NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MODIFY A BIT MORE THAN IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. SFC BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO
MOVE INLAND AS SFC RIDGE STUBBORNLY RETREATS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND. WARM ADVECTION ATOP THIS COOLER AIRMASS
SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...A FEW
STRONGER/DEEPER UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
..DARROW/GRAMS.. 11/19/2009
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