DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 300551
SWODY1
SPC AC 300550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2009

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING
EWD INTO THE NERN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD...S OF A VORTEX
ANCHORED OVER JAMES BAY/NRN QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...A CLOSED UPPER
LOW...INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF CA...WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
INTO NRN MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE NERN UPPER TROUGH
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND OFF THE TX COAST AT 12Z TODAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP EWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND TO MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD
BY EVENING...AND REACH NRN FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 12Z
TUESDAY.

...SRN LA TO SWRN AL...
AT 12Z TODAY...SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING
ALONG THE SRN EXTENT OF THE COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE
TX COAST. LIMITED DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT DUE TO WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE...IF ANY...SURFACE HEATING.
THIS COMBINED WITH DIMINISHING UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NERN STATES SUGGESTS TSTM TRENDS SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT...WITH TSTMS CONTINUING
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...PART OF SRN NM/FAR W TX TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED DESTABILIZATION AND
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE NRN MEXICO CLOSED
LOW SUGGEST SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE LIKELY TOWARD THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/30/2009

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