SWODY1
SPC AC 111252
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
REMNANTS OF T.S. IDA HAVE BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN MID LATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMPLEX NOW OVER GA. THE GA SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY E/ENE TODAY/TONIGHT...BEFORE PHASING WITH NRN STREAM TROUGH
NOW MOVING SE INTO KY. THE RESULTING UPR LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED
ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER BY 12Z THU AS SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE POSITIVE
TILT TROUGH CONTINUES E ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NW.
...CSTL CAROLINAS...
ELONGATED SFC LOW WILL PERSIST FROM N FL NEWD ALONG THE GA/SC CSTL
PLN TODAY...BEFORE CONSOLIDATING NEWD OFF THE SRN NC CST TONIGHT AS
UPR LOW AMPLIFIES OVER THE WRN CAROLINAS. TRAILING COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS EXTENDING S AND SSW FROM THE SFC LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SC/SRN NC CSTL PLN...AND ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL/SRN FL. STORM COVERAGE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPR SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
ALTHOUGH DEEP WIND FIELD WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS IN THE
CAROLINAS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR LIKELY WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED ATOP LINGERING LAYER OF SHALLOW COOL AIR.
A CORRIDOR OF LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL EXIST ALONG SW/NE
WARM/STNRY FRONT OVER THE SC AND SE NC CSTL PLN...WHERE AN
ISOLD/BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TIL ABOUT MIDDAY. BUT EVEN
IN THIS AREA...OVERALL SVR RISK LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO JUSTIFY
ADDITION OF A LOW PROBABILITIES GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND
LIKELIHOOD FOR ONLY MINIMAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
LIKELY CONSOLIDATION OF SFC LOW OFF THE NC CST SUGGESTS THAT ANY
ASSOCIATED SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
...CNTRL/SRN FL...
FARTHER S...DEEP SHEAR WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER OVER FL...WHERE
AFTN SBCAPE MAY LOCALLY EXCEED 1000 J/KG ALONG THE E CST. ALTHOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY FORM WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SVR THREAT LOOKS
LOW.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/11/2009
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