SWODY1
SPC AC 101246
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE NATION
THIS PERIOD AS BROAD...LARGER SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OFF THE BC/WA
CST. FARTHER SOUTH...TROPICAL STORM IDA WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
EXTRATROPICAL AS REMNANT CIRCULATION PHASES WITH AMPLIFYING
DISTURBANCES IN THE SRN STREAM.
...NERN GULF OF MEXICO...
SATELLITE AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW T.S. IDA BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ABSORBED WITHIN COMPLEX OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE IMPULSES NOW PHASING
OVER THE LWR MS VLY. BAND OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING SSW FROM IDA
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD ACCELERATE EWD LATER THIS MORNING
AS WLY COMPONENT TO MID LVL FLOW INCREASES WITH CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF PROGRESSIVE...LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER REGION.
THE CONVERGENCE BAND WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE NERN GULF AND PARTS OF NRN/WRN FL TODAY/TONIGHT AS THE
FEATURE GRADUALLY ASSUMES COLD FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. LOW LVL
WINDS AHEAD OF THE BAND SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME. IN ADDITION...
WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN
DISCRETE AND/OR MOVE OFF THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. BUT LOW LVL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO POSE
A THREAT FOR LOW LVL SHOWER/STORM ROTATION...GIVEN AVAILABILITY OF
RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIKELIHOOD FOR MODEST DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A BRIEF
TORNADO...AND/OR A SPOT OR TWO OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND. ANY SUCH
THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE FL CST...FROM THE
CSTL BEND AREA THROUGH MIDDAY...SSE TO THE TPA AREA BY EVE.
..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 11/10/2009
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