SWODY1
SPC AC 111929
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST WED NOV 11 2009
VALID 112000Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z UPDATE...
THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WESTERLY
OVER ALL BUT IMMEDIATE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS...AND GRADUAL
LOW-LEVEL DRYING COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENT...WARMING MID- LEVELS WILL
ACT TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
ZONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF A
SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE...THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BUT...DESTABILIZATION WITHIN A AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGION
ALONG A LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD STILL BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...AS THE LOW MIGRATES
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.
..KERR.. 11/11/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009/
...SOUTHEAST COAST...
GREATEST COVERAGE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS ASCENT
TRANSLATES ENEWD OFFSHORE. WV IMAGERY INDICATES INTENSE SUBSIDENCE
EXTENDING ACROSS NRN FL...WITH MORE FOCUSED VORTICITY MOVING INTO
UPSTATE SC THIS MORNING. THIS IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE EWD AND MAY
SUSTAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS INTO ERN SC/FAR SERN NC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW ADVANCES EWD OFF THE GA/SC COAST...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE INLAND WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED.
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO PERSIST ACROSS SRN FL THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS REGION WILL REMAIN WITHIN
SUBSIDENT FLOW AND WEAKENING SURFACE CONVERGENCE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
OVERALL THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
...PAC NW COAST...
ANOTHER COMPACT IMPULSE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DIVING SSEWD ALONG THE
BC COAST SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WA/ORE COAST LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE COASTAL RANGE.
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