SWODY1
SPC AC 221233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN STATES...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH GULF STATES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT
ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT. EVEN SO...GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY THERE IS ADEQUATE UPPER SUPPORT/SHEAR FOR A LOW END
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION THAT CAN OCCUR AS A DIFFUSE E/W WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
NWD ACROSS NRN FL TO ENEWD OFF THE SERN COAST. ATTM GIVEN THE
CLOUDINESS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF FL PENINSULA IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO HEAT SUFFICIENTLY TO DEVELOP MUCH
MORE MLCAPE THAN ABOUT 500 J/KG.
NEVERTHELESS WILL MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF SEVERE VICINITY THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE SOME ENHANCED SHEAR WILL FAVOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND A
SMALL CHANCE OF A BRIEF TORNADO AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. ANY THREAT
SHOULD END BY 00Z WHEN SHEAR WEAKENS AND ANY HEATING CEASES.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/22/2009
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