Wednesday, November 11, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 120045
SWODY1
SPC AC 120044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST WED NOV 11 2009

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CSTL ORE/WA...
MID-LVL DISTURBANCE JUST W OF VANCOUVER ISLAND AT 00Z WILL TURN ESE
INTO WRN ORE LATER THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS. 00Z
SALEM SOUNDING EXHIBITED SBCAPE OF 258 J/KG WITH POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE TOWER TOPS REACHING WELL INTO THE ICING LAYER. ADDED
LARGER SCALE LIFT THIS EVENING COUPLED WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPORADIC
TSTMS...PRIMARILY ALONG/W OF THE CSTL RANGES FROM SWRN WA INTO
WCNTRL ORE. SMALL HAIL/GRAUPEL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...CSTL/OUTER BANKS NC...
AT 00Z...A SFC LOW WAS CONSOLIDATING ABOUT 35 NM ESE OF KILM WITH
ANTICIPATED MOVEMENT TAKING IT NEAR/JUST E OF THE OUTER BANKS
OVERNIGHT. MHX RAOB THIS EVENING EXHIBITED NO THERMAL
BUOYANCY...WITH SATL/LIGHTNING DETECTOR SHOWING MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION ABOUT 80 NM OFFSHORE SERN NC. MEAGER DESTABILIZATION MAY
OCCUR OVER CSTL/OUTER BANKS OF NC LATER TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES
CLOSER TO THE REGION WITH ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE. MOST OF THE STORMS
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...HOWEVER.

..RACY.. 11/12/2009

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