SWODY1
SPC AC 051942
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST THU NOV 05 2009
VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY...CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDER POTENTIAL IN LEE OF
THE LOWER LAKES. WITH THIS TREND CONFIRMED IN THE LATEST LIGHTNING
DATA...WILL REMOVE THUNDER LINE FROM THIS AREA -- WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED STRIKE OR TWO EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS S FL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND LATER ACROSS THE COASTAL PAC NW OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.
..GOSS.. 11/05/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST THU NOV 05 2009/
...SRN FL...
12Z SOUNDINGS AT EYW AND MFL INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE /PW OF 1.7 IN/
AND BUOYANCY /MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER KG/ OVER THE SRN PART OF THE
PENINSULA. WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH PRONOUNCED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE NWLY UPPER LEVEL JET. 12Z
BUF SOUNDING INDICATES CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG LOCATED GENERALLY BELOW
600-700 MB...WHICH MAY BE ENHANCED OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF ERN LAKE
ERIE AND LAKE ONTARIO WHERE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENT.
ISOLATED CG LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS ALONG THE LAKE SHORE FROM NERN OH INTO SWRN NY...AND POTENTIAL
FOR LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
...PACIFIC NW COAST...
UPSTREAM COLD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF 130W IS MOVING EWD AND
EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
AN EXTENSIVE REGION OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BAND OFF THE BC COAST. NLDN DATA HAVE INDICATED OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD ELEMENTS...AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO COASTAL REGIONS OF NWRN
OREGON AND WRN WA LATER TONIGHT.
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