SWODY2
SPC AC 010448
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 31 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.
WILL UNDERGO SOME AMPLIFICATION DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN
ONE STREAM OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW...A VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTHEAST OF THE ALEUTIANS...
...BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC
NEAR 150W LONGITUDE. AS THIS OCCURS...BROAD DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL
TEND TO BUILD NORTHWARD/SHARPEN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...BUT IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS COULD BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT BY
PERTURBATIONS PROGRESSING THROUGH A COUPLE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
LATITUDE BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME...A PROMINENT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN ONE OF THESE STREAMS IS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF DIGGING THROUGH ONTARIO AND PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST...CONTRIBUTING TO LARGER SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COOL/DRY INTRUSIONS TO
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES... REINFORCING GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS
ALREADY PREVALENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION.
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
MOISTURE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION LIKELY WILL EXIST NEAR
A REMNANT SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT IN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE RISK OVER
INLAND AREAS SEEMS NEGLIGIBLE AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/01/2009
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