SWODY2
SPC AC 020530
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SUN NOV 01 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MORE AMPLIFIED WESTERN U.S. UPPER
RIDGE/CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPING ON
MONDAY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. REINFORCING COOL/DRY INTRUSIONS
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES APPEAR LIKELY...ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES
OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC REGIME. ONE
OF THESE MAY OVERTAKE THE REMNANT LEAD SURFACE FRONT AND GRADUALLY
ADVANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA. AS THIS
OCCURS...BRISK NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST ONLY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL COOLING WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE EVOLVING LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN. BUT...THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE MOIST NORTHEASTERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW REGIME...WHICH MAY ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS.
...MID MO VALLEY THRU UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...
A 70-80 KT CYCLONIC 500 MB JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO AND
THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID DAY TUESDAY...BEFORE
CONTINUING TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE THAT COOLING/LIFT IN ITS LEFT EXIT
REGION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. AND
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT THIS WILL BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BASED WITHIN AN ASSOCIATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE WEAK CAPE EVIDENT IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DOES APPEAR ALL GENERALLY WELL ABOVE THE FREEZING
LEVEL...IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT
SUPERCOOLED WATER AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
CHARGE SEPARATION. THUS...WHILE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES MAY BE
LOW...THEY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.
..KERR.. 11/02/2009
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