SWODY2
SPC AC 190659
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY.
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM...UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE/TRANSITION FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY
SATURDAY...WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE
WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. FARTHER SOUTH...EARLY PERIOD DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE TIED TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCING FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO TO EAST TX/FAR WESTERN LA BY
EARLY SATURDAY.
...TX/LA COASTS...
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EASTWARD AND
TAKE ON MORE OF A NEUTRAL TILT AS IT CROSSES TX ON FRIDAY. WILL
INTRODUCE LOW/CONDITIONAL-TYPE PROBABILITIES FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
CONTINGENT UPON A NON-CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED PRE-COLD FRONTAL
AIRMASS EXISTING ALONG THE TX COAST BEYOND 12Z/FRIDAY. PENDING
SUCH...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL LOW LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A
MOISTENING/MARITIME BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT SOME STRONG/SEVERE
TSTMS FRIDAY MORNING IN VICINITY OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COASTAL
PLAIN. OTHERWISE...WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
OCCUR DURING THE DAY ALONG A NORTHWARD RETREATING MARINE BAROCLINIC
ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. HOWEVER...THE MARINE/WARM FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED MARITIME AIRMASS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
THE UPPER TX COAST/FAR SOUTHERN LA...SUCH THAT THE INLAND POTENTIAL
FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
APPROACH OF A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
IN THE WAKE OF AN INITIAL FRONTAL BAND CROSSING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF
WA/ORE ON FRIDAY. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
..GUYER.. 11/19/2009
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