SWODY2
SPC AC 201718
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST STATES...
A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TEMPORARILY CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS
TONIGHT BEFORE OPENING AND BECOMING DEAMPLIFIED ENEWD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS...STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS LA
AND SRN MS. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG IN THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND
LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES ENEWD DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD... INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD RAISE SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN MS...SRN AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S F. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE 06 TO 12Z
TIMEFRAME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE COAST OF MS EWD INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE SATURDAY NIGHT SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 55-65 KT
RANGE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOOPED HODOGRAPHS. IN SPITE OF
RATHER WEAK INSTABILITY...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW ROTATING STORMS WITH A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 11/20/2009
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