SWODY2
SPC AC 131639
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1039 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING EQUATOR-WARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN INTO LOWER CO VALLEY WILL SUPPORT TROUGH INTENSIFICATION AND
EVENTUALLY LOW FORMATION OVER THE FOUR CORNER REGION DURING THE DAY
TWO PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO...WHILE
FATHER E...DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC.
AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN
U.S. TROUGHS WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN ARC NWWD
TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WITH WRN EXTENSION OF
FEATURE SAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE LOWER CO VALLEY.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION...
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AS INCREASED FORCING FOR
ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS ALONG CYCLONIC SIDE OF DIGGING JET STREAK ACTS
ON STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.
...OK...
PERSISTENT SLY/SWLY FLOW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT
THE NWD TRANSPORT OF A MODIFIED CP AIR MASS...ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD. AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY...BUT INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE
N OF COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PROGRESSIVELY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPE INCREASING TO
AROUND 500 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENTLY COOL THERMAL PROFILES TO SUPPORT
LIGHTNING DEVELOPMENT.
..MEAD.. 11/13/2009
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