SWODY2
SPC AC 301723
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST MON NOV 30 2009
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT QUICKLY E THROUGH THE
NERN STATES TONIGHT AS THE UPSTREAM WAVE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA DIGS
INTO THE NRN PLNS STATES. A STRONGER SRN STREAM UPR LOW...NOW OVER
NWRN SONORA...IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER SWRN TX EARLY
TUESDAY...THEN TURN ENE TO THE UPR TX CST/E TX BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF MODEL SPREAD IN
THE TIMING AND LOCATION.
IN THE LWR LVLS...THE CDFNT TIED TO THE NRN STREAM WAVE EXITING THE
ERN SEABOARD WILL SETTLE SWD TO ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER AND EXTEND W
ALONG THE GULF CST. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AFTN IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN STREAM SYSTEM...EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING ENE INTO SERN LA/SRN MS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY...ALA THE
PREFERRED ECMWF/GFS.
...CNTRL/WRN GULF CSTL REGION...
POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION/SPORADIC TSTMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE OVER CNTRL
TX TUESDAY MORNING AND EXPAND E AND NE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCD WITH THE APCHG UPR LOW.
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS.
AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
FROM SRN LA EWD ACROSS SRN PARTS OF AL/MS AND THE FL PNHDL. LLVL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A SLY COMPONENT AND INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY TUESDAY AFTN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW
OVER THE NWRN GULF. BUOYS ALREADY SUGGEST DEW POINTS NEAR/EXCEEDING
70 DEG F S OF THE APCHG CDFNT...AND THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY ADVECT
BACK N INTO AT LEAST CSTL SECTIONS OF SERN LA/MS/AL/FL PNHDL BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY...THE INCREASING WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT WILL PROBABLY
REINFORCE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT A LATE NIGHT SURGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED. SFC-BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP READILY OVER
THE WATER S OF THE FRONT...THEN MOVE NWD ONTO THE CST BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG...PARTICULARLY IN THE LLVLS AND
INVOF THE WRMFNT/SFC LOW. HERE...SFC SELYS WILL VEER/INCREASE
STRONGLY TO SSWLY 40-60 KTS AT H85...THEN SWLY 50-60 KTS AT H5.
THIS WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND LLVL
ROTATION WITH THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING WEAK INSTABILITY. FCST
WILL MAINTAIN LOW SVR PROBABILITIES...HOWEVER...MAINLY GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL UNCERTAINTIES AND WHAT WOULD PROBABLY END UP
BEING AN ISOLD TORNADO THREAT REGARDLESS OF MODEL CHOICE.
..RACY.. 11/30/2009
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