SWODY2
SPC AC 111721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE STRENGTHENING WITHIN A SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW IS NOW UNDERWAY FROM PARTS OF THE
SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS JET WILL NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE EXIT REGION OF A
STRONGER NORTHERN BRANCH JET NOSES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...
TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. HOWEVER...THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...THESE DEVELOPMENTS APPEAR LIKELY TO HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE DOWNSTREAM SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY
FORMING OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CUT-OFF FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES...WITH ONLY A GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OFF THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF ITS CIRCULATION CENTER. AS A
RESULT STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S...WITH
A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE SLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE
PLAINS.
...SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST...
WHILE THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE COUNTRY...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DOES APPEAR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE WARM SECTOR OF AN OCCLUDING
SURFACE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION...ALONG A LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE CENTER.
..KERR.. 11/11/2009
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