SWODY2
SPC AC 181733
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL EJECT
NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AS WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
OVER CA WILL MOVE INTO TX BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE AN
OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE TRAILING
FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE NERN STATES...MID ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT NWD
THROUGH ERN NC AND SERN VA. FARTHER WEST A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY
THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES.
...CNTRL AND S TX...
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WILL
ADVECT NWWD THROUGH SRN TX AS SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED EAST OF LEE TROUGH. THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN BENEATH
MODEST 6.5-7 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT WILL ADVECT EWD AHEAD
OF PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH RESULTING IN 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE OVER S
AND S-CNTRL TX BY THURSDAY EVENING. FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION
PROMOTED BY THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL AND S TX OVERNIGHT.
STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME UPDRAFTS TO DEVELOP MODEST
ROTATION. ISOLATED...SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS.
...NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...
SELY BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AS SURFACE RIDGE RETREATS TO OFF THE NERN U.S.
COAST. HOWEVER...A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COOL AIR COULD STILL PERSIST
ACROSS A PORTION OF THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM CNTRL AND WRN NC
AND VA. NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVECTION OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR
WILL BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE FROM THE ERN HALF OF NC INTO ERN VA. PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOSTLY NORTH OF
RETREATING WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE STRONGER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE MORE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DIAL.. 11/18/2009
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