SWODY2
SPC AC 021714
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CST MON NOV 02 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD...THOUGH A SMALL AREA
OF FOCUSED DEEP ASCENT ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION WOULD
OTHERWISE FAVOR A POTENTIAL ZONE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/IA/WI/IL EXHIBIT A SMALL
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IF LIFTING A PARCEL NEAR 700MB.
HOWEVER...LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TOO LOW
TO WARRANT A THUNDER OUTLOOK.
A NARROW ZONE OF MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALONG DIFFUSE
TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FL TUESDAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
POOR LAPSE RATES SUGGEST PRIMARY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE OVER WARMER WATERS...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT A LONE STORM
OVER LAND. WILL KEEP CURRENT THUNDERSTORM FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN
PENINSULA BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW.
..DARROW.. 11/02/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment