SWODY3
SPC AC 170827
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CST TUE NOV 17 2009
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS
ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE REMNANT MIDWEST CLOSED LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE MOST LOCALES...BUT
AT LEAST SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ALONG WITH SOUTH TX THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BAND NEARS THE
COAST.
...SOUTH TX...
LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT A LOW LATITUDE/SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY CROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/NORTHERN MEXICO THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. AS MASS FIELDS
BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS
TX...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TX DURING THE DAY. EVEN WITH A
SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION /AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND
GFS/...TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND MUCH OF
SOUTH TX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM MODEL
VARIABILITY REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...SEVERAL
FACTORS PRECLUDE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING
THE LIMITED VIGOR/POSITIVE TILT NATURE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS FOR MODEST DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
..GUYER.. 11/17/2009
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