Thursday, November 19, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190818
SWODY3
SPC AC 190817

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 AM CST THU NOV 19 2009

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
WITHIN A PERSISTENT SPLIT LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
FROM THE TX/LA BORDER VICINITY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM...AND A RETREATING MARITIME AIRMASS...WILL
FOCUS THE PRIMARY DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TO FL. ADDITIONAL/MORE ISOLATED
TSTMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL WA/PERHAPS COASTAL ORE AS THE NEXT IN
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/FRONTAL BANDS REACHES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.

...SOUTHEAST LA TO FL...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX CROSSES THE GULF
COAST STATES...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO OCCUR IN
VICINITY OF A NORTHWARD RETREATING MARITIME BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MAIN WARM/MOIST SECTOR SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT/ENCROACHING WARM FRONT TOWARD THE COAST COULD
POTENTIALLY SUPPORT SOME STRONG/SEVERE DEVELOPMENT INLAND...PERHAPS
FAR SOUTHEAST LA DIURNALLY OR THE FL PANHANDLE/FL WEST COAST LATE
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
UPPER SYSTEM/INLAND AIRMASS QUALITY...AND SEEMINGLY MODEST POTENTIAL
OVERALL...PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..GUYER.. 11/19/2009

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