SWOD48
SPC AC 110834
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST WED NOV 11 2009
VALID 141200Z - 191200Z
...DISCUSSION...
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW AT LEAST UNTIL DAY 5 WHEN AN UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO AMPLIFY SEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS BEFORE CLOSING OFF BY DAY 6 AND CONTINUING INTO THE MS
VALLEY REGION. GFS...ECMWF AND MOST MREF MEMBERS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD
A SIMILAR SOLUTION REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THIS FEATURE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WHICH
COULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN LINGERING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ERN
U.S. THAT WILL MAINTAIN ENELY LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NERN AND
CNTRL GULF. NEVERTHELESS...BASED ON CURRENT SOLUTIONS AN AXIS OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH TX...OK AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WARM SECTOR AND CONTRIBUTE TO A LEAST MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. WHILE A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THIS
REGION BY DAY 5 INTO DAY 6...A RISK AREA WILL NOT BE DELINEATED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
..DIAL.. 11/11/2009
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