SWOD48
SPC AC 130959
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST FRI NOV 13 2009
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW DISCUSSED IN DAY-2 AND DAY-3 OUTLOOKS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-4/16TH-17TH. MOST DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY
AND TEMPORARILY CUT OFF OVER LOWER MS VALLEY REGION DAYS
5-6/17TH-19TH. WHILE SVR POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER GULF COAST
STATES CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME FRAME...CONCERNS
REGARDING SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES...MOISTURE RETURN AND BUOYANCY
PRECLUDE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SVR THREAT TO ASSIGN A 30%
GRID-PROBABILITY LINE. THEREAFTER...THIS LOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ABSORBED AGAIN INTO PREVAILING WLYS...WITH GEN TENDENCY FOR HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING ACROSS WRN CONUS DAYS 7-8/19TH-21ST.
ATTM...CRITICAL MESOSCALE DETAILS AND CHARACTER OF RETURN MOISTURE
EACH APPEAR TOO UNCERTAIN FOR OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS.. 11/13/2009
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