SWOD48
SPC AC 180955
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST WED NOV 18 2009
VALID 211200Z - 261200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS A CONTINUANCE OF THE DAY 3 SCENARIO...A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SHOULD ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH DAYS 4-5 SATURDAY/SUNDAY. WHILE SOME
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PARENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INLAND PENETRATION
OF AN APPRECIABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR PRECLUDES 30% DAY 1 EQUIVALENT
PROBABILITIES FOR THE WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE
TIMING/STRENGTH SPREAD AMONGST AVAILABLE ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE EXISTS
WITH RESPECT TO A POTENTIAL CENTRAL STATES UPPER THROUGH DURING THE
DAYS 6-8 MONDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
..GUYER.. 11/18/2009
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